Here’s my predictions for AKB48 5th senbatsu election. Several ways you can vote, mainly most of the votes will likely come from AKB48 31st single “Sayonara Crawl”. It will be release May 22nd, this single will have one voting ballot in each CD. Just like last year it’s a Top 64. This will determine who will be the senbatsu members for AKB48 32nd single, will be release around late August of this year. The voting will start May 21st at 10 a.m. til June 7th 3 p.m. (Japan Time).
17-32 Under Girls.
33-48 Next Girls.
49-64 Future Girls.
I Bought one copy each of the Regular Editions Version. That’s 3 votes, they will be all going to Haruna Koijma.
I will do a Top 20 prediction only, anything beyond that is almost impossible to get right.
1. Yuko Oshima (AKB48 – Team K) – Should be the heavy favorite to go number one, any other will be a surprise and a big upset. Last year even without Acchan competing, which resulted in about 14,000 less votes from the previous year. She still had about 34,000 more votes than next member.
2. Mayu Watanabe (AKB48 – Team A) – Ever since Acchan graduated, Mayu has basically been the face of AKB48. Whether this resulted in more fans, who knows. Alot think she will challenge Yuko for the top, I honestly doubted that very much.
3. Yuki Kashiwagi (AKB48 – Team B) – Could, should challenge Mayu for that number 2 spot. I wouldn’t bet on it.
4. Mariko Shinoda (AKB48 – Team A) – Never underestimate her fans, Top 3 is a possibility.
5. Rino Sashihara (HKT48 – Team H) – I’m taking a big gamble here. I’m sure she lost some fans from that scandal she had last summer, but also gain some from being transfered to HKT48. Whether it all equals out, I doubt it. Even if she gets 10,000 less votes from a year ago, I think it’s still enough for Top 5. Anything more than that who knows, Yes she could drop big time, if drops out of the Top 10. I will be be very surprise.
6. Minami Takahashi (AKB48 – Team A) – She rank 6th last year, was less than 2,000 votes from being Top 4. I think last year she had some sentimental votes and some of Acchan votes, I can’t see that happening this year. I think she’ll be hard pressed to reach the amount of votes she had last year.
7. Haruna Kojima (AKB48 – Team B) – I’m just hoping for the Best. The higher she ranks the better, I think she has an outside chance at Top 5.
8. Tomomi Itano (AKB48 – Team K) – Since she annouce she will be graduating from AKB48 this year, alot think she will get alot of sentimental votes. And rank in the Top 4, I can’t see that happening. She’ll be lucky to stay in Top 8 (Didn’t I say the same thing last year).
9. Jurina Matsui (SKE48 – Team S, AKB48 – Team K) – She’s basically an AKB48 member, they should just take her out of SKE48. And make her the center AKB48, why delay the inevitable she’s Acchan heir apparent. I think she has a chance of moving up big time (Top 5), for that to happen she has to get 15,000 – 20,000 more votes than last year. Unlikely, but with Jurina who knows.
10. Rena Matsui (SKE48 – Team S) – Her fans will do their best to rank her ahead of Jurina, it’s possibility. As much as I would like that to happen, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Predicting The Top 10 was easy, now this is where it gets really tough.
11. Sae Miyazawa (AKB48 – Team K) – Since she had more than 13,000 votes from the next member below her last year, I think this a pretty safe prediction. And considering Sayaka Akimoto won’t be participating in this years election, who knows how many votes she can get from that.
12. Aki Takajo (AKB48 – Team B) – I’m taking a big gamble here. Don’t be surprise if ranks even higher.
13. Haruka Shimazaki (AKB48 – Team A) – She’s probably the most hated AKB48 member in history, Sasshi might disagree. But she also has alot of fans who will die for her.
14. Miyuki Watanabe (NMB48 – Team N and AKB48 – Team B) – Wow, is she ever getting some heavy pushing within AKB48. I’m predicting her here, based on that. The downside to that AKB48 pushing is it could turn off alot of NMB48 fans and AKB48 fans. But, she is a master of fan service. This is a Boom or Bust, I think this might be the member who I’m most curious about on where she’s going to rank.
15. Sayaka Yamamoto (NMB48 – Team N) – I think she’s more popular than Milky within NMB48 fans, I’m just playing it safe.
16. Rie Kitahara (AKB48 – Team K) – I think being with SKE48 temporaily a while back, hurt her abit.
17. Ayaka Umeda (AKB48 – Team K) – I think she was the big surprise in last years election. I’m being safe here, but I think she could be Top 12 this year.
18. Yui Yokoyama (AKB48 – Team A) – She’s not as push anywhere like she once was, But she’s still a regular senbatsu. I can’t see her losing that much votes from a year ago.
19. Amina Sato (AKB48 – Team) – Although I think she’ll drop, maybe even big time. I can’t see any of the members below her, ranking ahead of her. Actually I can, maybe I’m just being safe again.
20. Akane Takayanagi (SKE48 – Team E) – The most popular SKE48 member outside of the “Matsui’s”, that mass SKE48 graduation a few months ago. Will definitely help her.
21. Asuka Kuramochi (AKB48 – Team K) – I said this was a Top 20 prediction, just had to include Mocchi.
Other Thoughts, about the election.
Of these three I think Rina Kawaei will rank, Anna Iriyama should rank, but won’t be surprise if she doesn’t. Maybe a little. Rena Kato I hope she ranks, but I wouldn’t expect it.
Of those graduated members who will be in the election – Haruka Kohara, Kayo Noro, Kazumi Urano, Megumi Ohori, Natsumi Hirajima, Yukari Sato. I think they all have a good chance of ranking maybe except Haruka Kohara, I hope I’m wrong. I think she’s gorgeous. Of those members I’ve seen alot picking Megumi Ohori to rank the highest, I think Yukari Sato will rank the highest don’t be surprise if she ranks Top 20 or make senbatsu. You heard here first. Chances are I’m probably way off.